Every call since 19 June 2026 is on the record.

A callis the tone, signal or status the instrument wrote to its daily anchor: regime, ratio and transmission rows on the first render after 00:00 UTC, chokepoint rows by the 06:15 UTC snapshot job. Each row carries the time it was recorded in the CSV and JSON. It is derived from the stored row, never recomputed from today's data.

Outcome is defined for the regime tape only: the last VIX close before the call date against the close 5 observations later. A watch or stress call hits if the VIX rose at least 5 percent; a calm call hits if it did not. One threshold, so no window can vindicate both. Pending means the fifth close has not printed yet.

The hit rate is withheld until 30 scored days exist, and withheld for as long as the instrument has only ever made one kind of call, because a rate on an all-calm record is just the base rate. Beside every rate is the always-calm base rate: what a caller who said calm every day would have scored on the same days. A rate is only worth something above that line.

Coverage marks days a feed did not report. Chokepoint rows with no aircraft coverage carry no call, and a chokepoint series is unscored until thirty covered days exist. Before October 2026 the aircraft feed was failing silently; those days are shown as what they were.

Excluded: ratio signals and transmission status are published as record with counts but no hit rate, because each needs its own outcome rule.